Wednesday, June 22, 2011

DW, Kanter, or trade?

The Wolves have notified teams they intend to select Turkish center Enes Kanter tomorrow. Hard to say if that's true or not. One good theory I read was that their intention is to trade the #2 pick if they can and they have exhausted options with the belief that a team should move up to #2 to nab DW - and are now testing the waters with a threat to take Kanter. Could that get another team to panic and try to move up?

Or are they serious. I posted earlier that I wasn't entirely thrilled with Kanter but I went back and watched what little footage I could find on him again and although I'm not convinced he'll be a great defender - it's his jump shot and post presence that intrigues me. Last year I preferred Cousins over Wes Johnson (and actually I liked Favors over both, but irrelevant) for the same reason I like Kanter here. The offensive skill these bigs have is rare. Scoring, or the threat to score, is still king in the league when it comes to evaluating an individual's talent. Defense and hustle can be found later in drafts and in free agency.

Defense is important, don't get me wrong. But I've seen that a greatly skilled offensive player will almost always best a gifted defensive player in this league with the rule settings as they are. The way to stop great offensive players is to become a good team defense. That's the key there, is to find smart players who can buy into a team defense approach and not necessarily hustle guys who have absurd athleticism. Players who talk, rotate, and understand how the other team wants to attack and act as a unit is more important than one's individual defensive ability.

So in this situation if the Wolves think Kanter is a game changer, a mismatch maker on the offensive end, I endorse the decision. The only problem is the limited amount of footage on this guy. 2 professional games in 2 years means they had better done their homework.

I'm not saying that DW is a slouch on offense - in fact I think his value is his offense too. Like Mike Beasley he provides a mismatch for SFs with his size and PFs with his quickness and quite successful jump shot. However, it seems that every draft has a handful of guys just like this and you have to question whether at the #2 pick he's all that much better than other players (such as Kawai Leonard).

Lastly on the discussion between the 2 of them - a team need for the Wolves is center and a guy who stands taller than 6'9". Kanter has the legit size and its possible he grows more. One thing I liked about Kanter is that despite being 260 lbs he has a body fat percentage of 5.9. That's an absurdly low value and his conditioning is reported as elite. You have to like that. On the contrast, DW is over 10% on his 6'8" 250 lb frame.

You have to like that Kanter should be able to run for days with outlet passes from Love and running from Rubio. He seems like a much better fit with perhaps a much higher ceiling.

As for trade - the ideal situation is to move back to #3 or #4 and still land Kanter and add another veteran or pick. I think this is their goal - may have been from the start - which is why they were trying to move the pick so aggressively at first and would explain why they have announced their intentions to take Kanter now that they haven't received a good enough offer.

I'd like to think we're in for a wild ride tomorrow night but I think I said the same thing last year and all we saw was Babbit for Webster.

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